World Cup 2026 Group-Stage Burden

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How to read this

Load score ranks teams by combined group-stage stress. Higher means a tougher group-stage path in this current 48-team sample.

  • Travel burden: total roundtrip distance plus the longest one-way leg.
  • Recovery burden: fewer days between matches and more short turnarounds.
  • Climate burden: hotter, more humid venues with higher dew point.
  • Altitude burden: higher venues and larger altitude jumps from base camp.
  • Sequence penalty: when a hard trip is followed by short rest and another stressful venue.
  • Kickoff heat: hot matches played at harsher local kickoff times.
  • Familiarity relief: lowered burden for base-city or repeat-city matches.
  • Load score blend: travel 27%, recovery 20%, climate 18%, altitude 17%, sequence 12%, kickoff heat 6%, minus familiarity relief 10%.
  • Rank: teams are ordered by the final blended load score within this 48-team sample.
  • Calibration: component scores are normalized against the current sample.

Burden score blends travel distance, recovery time, climate exposure and altitude stress across the current base-camp sample.

Analysis: Bob Yakubov LinkedIn
Sources: FIFA schedule, host-city geography, June/July climate baselines and seasonal outlooks
Selected Team
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Load Score
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Composite group-stage burden
Total Travel Distance
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Recovery
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Heat + Humidity
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Altitude
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Selected Team Route Map

Base camp and group-stage roundtrips across USA, Canada and Mexico.

Selected Team Summary

Quick read on why this team lands where it does.

Match-by-Match Exposure

Each card shows the route leg, local kickoff, climate and altitude context for one group-stage match.

Burden Component Mix

Which factor is doing the damage.